The reason and mechanics behind the biggest wave election in the history of America

Posted on September 13, 2010


The reason and mechanics behind the biggest wave election in the history of America. I will start with the mechanics, this election year is an odd one to start, there are too many Senate seats up for election 37 in total, due to death and appointments. Every two years 1/3 of the total seats or 33 or 34 seats are up for election. Also there are 34 governorships up for grabs this year. With all these important top of the ticket elections, I expect turnout and enthusiasm to be high in almost every state. In 2006 60 million votes were cast, I believe we will be north of 70 million this time around. Here is where the perfect storm for republicans comes into play; in nearly every state the Republican Party has the clear favorite or a competitive race at the top of the ticket. This has never happened in my life time, and I would venture a guess that if I were 60 years older I could still make that statement. Republicans have competitive governor and senate races in California, Illinois, and Connecticut, absolutely unheard of at any time in the past. Imagine Democrats have competitive senate and governorships in Utah, Alabama and Texas; you can try but not with a straight face. These big top of the ticket races will drive voters to the polls helping the down ticket races, and springing some surprises. This works both ways, many of the down ticket congressional races with large turnouts will help carry some senators or governors to victories as well. Example would be Florida 22 congressional district, historically a 51-49 democratic district, if polls are to be believed Allen West will win with 58% of the vote. This will translate to 10,000 additional votes most likely being cast for republican senate and governor candidates coming from coming from a district that typically is a slight negative.

The reason for this is simple enthusiasm, the reasons behind the enthusiasm are so numerous and varied I will not cover then all. My personal favorite is the tea party, groups of highly informed and incredibly motivated people who are counting the days for progress to start. They have brought the biggest breath of fresh air in to the political arena, and it’s refreshing as well as entertaining. My favorite criticism is that tea party candidates are out of the mainstream, well if mainstream is judged by going to Washington and seeing how much money can be spent, and then yes they are out of the mainstream they want to spend less, so much so they campaign on it. A candidate promises to do less in Washington; the establishment does not know what to do with them. Let’s take a look at it mathematically, if the generic ballot puts the republican advantage at +7, and the enthusiasm gap at +25% compared to 2006 where the democrats had 13 point generic and 10 point enthusiasm gap advantage that translated into a 7 million vote victory. To flip this around, I like many other believe the generic ballot favors Democrats by about 4 points; I would make the republican advantage larger by 4 in 2010 and take it away in 2006. This year the true change will come from the independents, and they may well be called independicans. They have moved so far in such a short period of time, and show almost as large an enthusiasm gap as republicans feeding the perfect storm. My nutty predictions minimum of 65 seats in the house, 10 in senate, 31 governors and massive pickups in the state houses, 61% of all the local districts.